Three years ago, supporters of Iran's Green Revolution made a valiant attempt to defeat the Mullahs at the ballot box. They also demonstrated their numerical strength with spirited street rallies throughout the nation.
Sadly, they were routed by the regime's sometimes lethal firepower. Many will remember the iconic video image of Nida Sultan, a vibrant young woman lying mortally wounded in a Tehran street.
Despite their defeat in 2009, there are many who believe that a more humane leadership could ultimately prevail. Iranians have proven that they're capable of chasing an unpopular regime from power as they did in 1979. At that time, the theocracy prevailed owing to the tenor of the times; the majority of Iranians were intensely religious. Since then, there's been a demographic sea-change; Iran has become a younger, more secular, and above all a wired nation. People can communicate with each other in ways that were unknowable 33 years ago, and can organize accordingly. 2009 was a start. Given time, the days of the Mullahs and Sharia law could be numbered.
Is Iran really on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon? According to most intelligence assessments, pursuit of a weapon has been tabled, with the focus instead on nuclear power. If that was to change, perfection of a warhead would be years away.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that Iran abandoned pursuit of a nuclear weapon in 2003 and has made no effort to restart it. The CIA and Mossad (Israel's CIA counterpart) have made similar assessments.
Intelligence estimates aside, suppose Iran did achieve nuclear weapon capability. Wouldn't the principal of mutually assured destruction apply? Israel has the potential to retaliate many times over if Iran was to initiate hostile action; their nuclear arsenal may be the planet's best-kept secret that everybody knows.
I fully understand many Israelis' discomfort with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's bellicose rhetoric: especially the statements vowing Israel's destruction. Particularly for Holocaust survivors and their families, his declarations of Holocaust denial must be emotionally jarring to hear and searingly painful to read. Does he actually believe what he's saying? Who knows!
There's no historical hatred of Jews in Iran of which I'm aware. What more likely motivates Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs is Israel's treatment of the Palestinians, not hard-wired feelings of anti-Judaism. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a flashpoint that resonates throughout the Middle East and beyond. As far as I know, none of the intelligence pros, whether with the CIA, Mossad, or the IAEA, believe that Iran's leaders are looney.
If my memory serves me, Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev aimed some pretty wild threats at the US in his day, the most memorable one being, "We will bury you!". Many folks considered him a madman. We and the Soviets were both armed to our eye-teeth with nuclear fireworks, but each of us was aware of our mutual potential to return the entire planet to the Kingdom of the Cockroaches. Literally!
Meanwhile, the drumbeat for military action against Iran seems to be intensifying. Despite Mossad's own intelligence estimates, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems determined to attack. But many of his loudest cheerleaders appear to be concentrated within our own borders: among them, the Republican presidential candidates (except Ron Paul), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and the community of neocons who promoted the invasion of Iraq. Even President Obama, despite his preference for diplomacy, has promised Israel that "he'd have their back", and that containment will not be an option --- despite containment's historical success as a policy.
An attack on Iran could have grave consequences, measured not only by loss of life in populated areas near nuclear facilities, but economic chaos throughout much of the world. And efforts to build a nuclear weapon would not be squelched; instead Iranians' resolve would likely be strengthened.
Above all, the citizens of Iran have demonstrated that, in the event that their nation is attacked, they'll unite unconditionally behind their leaders --- as they did during the Iran-Iraq War not all that long ago. Many Middle Eastern scholars as well as Iranian expats often emphasize Iranians' intense sense of nationalism.
So, do you hawks out there really want to kill the Green Revolution as well as further destabilize the region --- and maybe the planet? Then go get 'em! Or, in the words of a certain ex-president, "Bring it on!". Otherwise, try to find some other way to scratch that itchy trigger finger. Consider meditation.
